Published
2018-12-14
Issue
Section
Articles
How to Cite
The Relationship among Economic Growth, Trade, Unemployment, and Inflation in South Asia: A Vector Autoregressive Model Approach
Anh Tru Nguyen
The University of Newcastle Level 6, New Space, 409 Hunter Street, Newcastle NSW 2300, Australia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20448/journal.501.2018.52.165.172
Keywords: Economic growth, Trade, Unemployment, Inflation.
Abstract
The article aims to investigate the causal relationship among economic growth, exports, imports, unemployment, and inflation in five developing countries in South Asia for the last two decades (1997-2016) using a VAR model. We found that GDP has a negative relationship with inflation, while imports positively affect inflation in South Asian countries. Results demonstrated that there are no directional causalities between GDP, exports, imports, and unemployment rate and other variables in the short run. In contrast, there is a directional causality between inflation rate and other variables in the short run. We also found that there is a long-term relationship among economic growth, exports, imports, unemployment, and inflation in South Asia. Lastly, policies are recommended in order to ensure economic growth and a sustainable development in the South Asia.